USAF/Battelle Special Report No. 14: Statistical Analysis of 4,000 UFO Reports (Classified)
On May 5, 1955, the Air Force released Special Report No. 14 by the Battelle Memorial Institute, analyzing ~4,000 UFO reports. Despite concluding UFOs were 'highly improbable,' the data showed 3% true unknowns with 21% total unidentified.
Background
The Report
On May 5, 1955, the Air Force released Special Report No. 14, 'Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects' (Project No. 10073; Study No. 102-EL-55/2-79). Prepared by the Battelle Memorial Institute in Columbus, Ohio, it analyzed approximately 4,000 reports.
Findings
The report concluded it was 'highly improbable that reports of unidentified aerial objects represent observations of technological developments outside the range of present-day scientific knowledge.' However, the data told a different story: statistically, the hard-to-dismiss cases still listed as 'unknowns' (multiple credible witnesses, some in close proximity) constituted 3 percent of cases — around 120 incidents from 1947 through 1954. Including cases with 'insufficient evidence,' the total unidentified rose to 21 percent.
Former Project Blue Book director Captain Edward Ruppelt later commented: 'This is not a good study... I saw the unpublished draft and had written it off as worthless.'
Note: Reports numbered 1-13 remained classified.
Significance
The most comprehensive statistical analysis of UFO reports ever conducted revealed 21% remained unidentified despite the dismissive conclusions.